A little over a week ago, on Oct. 12, Russia fired several ballistic missiles at Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. I was there, and like other local residents, I was troubled less by the blasts than by the eerie calm preceding them: No siren had cried out. Ukraine’s own radar spotted the missiles only as they closed in on Kyiv, leaving little time to attempt an interception. “We received no early warning from our partners about this strike,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the next day.
Until this month, that warning had reliably come from the United States. America’s space-based infrared satellites detect the heat signatures produced by Russian ballistic-missile launches in real time, giving air-defense crews and civilians time to act.
Then the warnings stopped.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine went three days without a single American warning amid Russia’s ballistic barrage until Washington resumed sharing the data.
On Oct. 14, two days after the attack on Kyiv, Ukraine also lost full use of Starshield, the military version of SpaceX’s Starlink network, which keeps Ukraine’s interceptor drones and front-line strike drones connected. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Oct. 17 that Ukraine does “not have access to it at this moment.”
The Trump administration denies withholding anything, with officials pinning the failure to warn Kyiv on the weather. But Zelenskyy says U.S. military officials had already told Ukraine, “If you will not stop [the strikes], we will block intelligence.” He was referring to Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries, which Trump blames for high diesel prices in America.
If Zelenskyy is right, it means that, shockingly, the Trump administration is using Ukraine’s defenses as leverage in an effort to protect Russian fuel exports. Those exports matter to the White House now because of a crisis of its own making. Fuel prices surged after the United States went to war with Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Many experts attribute that rise to the Iran war rather than to Ukraine’s drones. Earlier this month, Trump announced a deal for Russia to export up to 4.8 million metric tons of its diesel fuel. Ukraine, the victim of an authoritarian’s war of territorial conquest, is being made to absorb the costs of Trump’s senseless war with Iran.
The White House’s gambit has left Ukraine exposed to missiles and drones it could not see coming. It has granted Russia a breather from Ukrainian attacks just as Russia’s war effort was stalling. And it has shown every ally that U.S. security technology can be switched off when a president needs someone else to blame for fuel prices driven up by his own deeply unpopular war, weeks before the midterms.
What Washington Wants
White House officials have strenuously denied responsibility for the Starshield restrictions. Rubio insisted the slowdown “wasn’t deliberate” and that “nobody ordered that Starlink speed to be slowed down.” Trump’s version was: “I don’t know if it was anybody, because it wasn’t me. And I don’t think it was Elon.”
Let’s take stock of this. We are essentially being asked to accept that restrictions on SpaceX services, imposed close to the interruption of American missile warnings, were an extraordinary coincidence. According to a Reuters story, the order to slow Starshield came from inside the White House. The Telegraph reported that Elon Musk pitched the idea to Trump, who agreed. A bipartisan group of nine senators has asked the Pentagon’s inspector general to investigate whether any U.S. officials directed or approved the changes to Starshield and intelligence sharing.
Washington, according to Ukrainian reports, has not made an end to Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure a condition for restraining Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil industry. The “energy ceasefire” Trump announced on Oct. 11 was, in one White House official’s words, “refinery for refinery”; protection for Ukraine’s power plants and grid was left for a possible later deal. Kyiv did halt its refinery strikes for three days at Washington’s request. Moscow, of course, kept bombing, and no American missile warnings arrived. The warnings came back only after Zelenskyy declared the pause over. No one is suggesting this is a neat and tidy and linear quid pro quo; nevertheless, there was a threat on record from U.S. officials, and the harms inflicted on Ukraine were the very ones outlined in the threat.
Trump wants Kyiv to spare Russian refineries so Russia can supply diesel. Should Russia (however improbably) ship it, the initial shipment of more than 300,000 metric tons would cover roughly 15 hours of typical American consumption, hardly offsetting the disruption caused by the Iran war. Even the full 4.8 million tons, delivered in phases, comes to less than 10 days’ worth.
In an Oct. 18 social media post, Trump complained that “Zelenskyy is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target,” attacks he said were “seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States,” even as he touted “great progress” toward peace. Yet weakening Ukraine’s position does not remove Moscow’s demand for domination. Oil revenue helps sustain Russia’s war; sparing its facilities reduces the tactical pressure Ukraine can impose. Bargaining with intelligence and interception capabilities instead puts the lives of civilians at risk.
What Ukraine Loses Without American Intelligence
American launch information passes through ground processing before reaching Ukrainian authorities responsible for air defense and civilian warnings. This American view from space has no immediately available replacement for Ukraine.
Even after the warnings resumed, the gap did not fully close. Overnight into Oct. 19, as Russia fired 16 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and the surrounding region, Ukraine’s air force said no warning arrived before the first strike, though one did before a second wave. On Monday, Zelenskyy cited “delays in certain types of vital supplies at the level of the U.S. Department of War,” and on Tuesday he pressed Rubio on both Starshield and the ballistic-missile interceptors Ukraine needs.
Ukraine has paid for an American intelligence cutoff before. During my visit to the Ukrainian-held part of Russia’s Kursk region in 2024, I saw how intelligence allowed Ukrainian soldiers to monitor Russian movements and conduct deep reconnaissance, helping them keep Russian forces at bay. Despite those months of success, Washington’s March 2025 decision to halt intelligence sharing hastened Russia’s rapid advance, crushing much of the Ukrainian foothold and allowing Moscow to retake the territory. Had Ukraine retained that land, it would have held a powerful negotiating chip in regaining its own occupied territories.
The Connections That Keep Ukraine Fighting
Starlink, SpaceX’s commercial satellite internet network, is used by Ukrainian civilians and military units for communications, reconnaissance, and some defensive drones. Starshield, its government and military version, provides communications service through separate arrangements. Both have defensive applications.
When regular communications are unavailable, Starlink connects dispersed Ukrainian units and lets commanders see real-time battlefield imagery, helping them identify Russian movements and respond to ambushes or advances. Its role extends from battlefield logistics to passing information between front-line units and headquarters in Kyiv. Satellite connections also help Ukrainian aviation respond rapidly to incoming drones. Reconnaissance becomes useful only when it reaches someone able to act before the target moves.
Ukrainian officials say the new restrictions cut off terminals using the affected military service once they move faster than 100 mph. Zelenskyy says the same terminals keep working above 110 mph in neighboring EU countries, a pattern hard to square with a technical glitch. Newer Russian jet-powered attack drones can travel at 250 mph, requiring interceptors to maintain communications well above the imposed limit.
Presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov says the restriction affects some interceptor drones but also helicopters hunting incoming drones. Affected systems cannot operate as intended, leaving civilians and critical infrastructure more exposed.
Beyond interception, the same communications support strikes against Russian ammunition depots, command facilities, and logistics in occupied Ukrainian territory, reducing available Russian supplies for subsequent attacks. Losing a connection can therefore impair both an interception over Ukraine and an operation against Russian forces preparing another attack. The effect was immediate: Ukrainian drone-unit data showed strikes on Russian logistics vehicles fell sharply on Oct. 14, the day the Starshield speed-limit restrictions took effect, a drop the Institute for the Study of War found was “very likely” caused by the restrictions.
Moscow is doing everything on its end to deprive Ukraine of Starlink. An arson attack on a London warehouse storing Starlink’s equipment has been blamed on Russia. Ditto for an attack on a Polish ground station. Now the White House is doing some of that work for Moscow.
Europe’s Eutelsat OneWeb network already offers satellite communications, but Ukraine cannot simply switch the Starlink equipment built into its military operations to that service. Replacement requires different equipment, procurement, installation, and testing. Replacing the battle-tested service around which Ukrainian operations have been built requires more than purchasing another subscription.
Russia’s Rassvet network has demonstrated working communications, but it does not yet give its forces a comparable, fully deployed service. Limiting one of Kyiv’s key advantages now gives Moscow time to catch up with the technology currently favoring Ukraine.
A Winter Without Heat or Water
According to United Nations monitors, Kyiv recorded civilian casualties on 22 of 30 days in September, more such days than in any previous month of the full-scale invasion. Russia’s overnight attack on Oct. 19 alone left more than 500,000 households across Ukraine without electricity, extending the danger to civilian lives beyond those killed or injured in an explosion. Weaker warnings and fewer successful interceptions leave the same infrastructure more exposed to further damage.
Ukraine, like other former Soviet republics, relies heavily on centralized heating, making the plants and pumps serving entire districts a central target for Moscow. Last winter, only about a third of households could adequately heat their homes. With nighttime temperatures falling to 14 degrees Fahrenheit or below, prolonged heating failures can become deadly. Compounding failures further damage an already gutted economy and drive more people to seek refuge elsewhere in Europe.
Intelligence-sharing restrictions lasting days have consequences lasting months when an attack destroys equipment that cannot quickly be replaced. Restoring intelligence or reconnecting an aircraft does not repair a heating plant. Families still face the choice between remaining without essential services and leaving homes they have already spent years struggling to protect.
Europe Pays, Washington Sets the Terms
Military Starshield services operate under Pentagon-administered contracts, but that does not make all of Ukraine’s satellite connectivity a gift from Washington. Poland finances more than 29,000 Starlink terminals and their service, while Germany also contributes; both countries have protested restrictions on services their taxpayers help fund. European subscriptions and American military contracts are different arrangements, but both leave Ukraine dependent on access it cannot independently guarantee.
Europe has no quick fix. The EU’s defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, has conceded that the continent is “quite dependent on American space capabilities,” and its planned IRIS² satellite network is years from operating. Why would Europeans trust American technology if access can be granted and withdrawn at the whim of whatever capricious leader next occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.? At this point, it would be strategic negligence for a European country to stake its sovereignty on whatever decision Washington makes next.
An Unearned Reprieve for Moscow
Estimates from Ukraine’s General Staff put Russian casualties, including killed and wounded, above 46,000 in September, averaging 1,541 a day. American intelligence and satellite communications are central to Ukraine’s effective use of drones against Russian forces and to protecting soldiers and civilians from incoming attacks. Reduced Ukrainian pressure gives Russian logistics more room to operate, even without a territorial breakthrough. Supplies and equipment that survive Ukrainian attacks remain available to sustain the invasion and the campaign against Ukraine’s electricity, heating, water, and communications.
My conversations with Ukrainians have revealed less a sense of entitlement to this support than shock at the betrayal of their trust: As Russia tries to stomp out their lives, Washington is withholding the warnings and connections that protect them. They had wrongly believed that their loyalty would be reciprocated. Today, they must prepare for attacks while wondering whether capabilities on which their protection depends will remain available.
By restricting vital intelligence and communications support to Ukraine, Washington has effectively subsidized Russia’s stalling war effort at the expense of the Ukrainian people bravely resisting it. The Kremlin has received an unearned reprieve, while Ukrainians bear the consequences in damaged homes, disrupted services, and, above all, civilian lives lost.
One Last Thing …
Earlier today, senior editor Berny Belvedere and The Argument’s Jeremiah Johnson linked up for an episode of The UnPopulist Live. They talked Mamdani, Russian bots, the shortest White House press secretary tenure in history, and more. Here’s the video for those who missed it live.
© The UnPopulist, 2026
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Trump is a despicable tyrant. I no longer care what Putin has on him. He just needs to be taken away. VOTE in the mid-terms. The democrats will tie him in knots and demand the support that Kiev so desperately need. Trump's treatment of Ukraine has been shameful.
This is appalling and unconscionable! Musk, Trump, Vance and Hegseth should burn in Hell for all the death they have caused in Ukraine!