The Election Was a Rebuke of Trump and Not Only Because He Has Failed to Deliver Economic Relief
Its lesson is that Democrats should vigorously attack his economic record and his tyrannical agenda
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Democrats had a very good night.
Tuesday’s odd-year elections were expected to see Democrats win most of the high-profile races. Traditionally, the party that won the White House a year prior tends to do poorly as thermostatic backlash kicks in. Heading into election day, there were few high-profile races where the outcome was not in much doubt. But the margins matter as an indication of where things are heading, namely, voters do not want Trumpism to reign unchecked.
Across the board, moderates like Virginia’s governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and New York City’s leftist mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani leaned into running against Trump, whose approval ratings are deeply underwater, together with cost-of-living issues. The two themes are closely related rather than in tension; Trump’s tariffs and all-around chaos have been terrible for people’s economic security on top of flouting the Constitution.
It’s a positive sign for next year’s congressional races. Democrats belong to a party that isn’t exactly popular. They have been performing anemically on the generic ballot polls compared to this point preceding the “blue wave” of 2018, Trump’s last midterm. The results offer some indication this polling might be underestimating them. That low approval for Democrats in the abstract might not matter so much when voters are presented with the choice between the party of Trump and the party of not-Trump.
Here’s a recap of the highlights.
Virginia
The governor’s race, usually seen as the biggest odd-year bellwether, was an absolute rout. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and member of Congress, defeated Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by a crushing 15 points, more than was expected in a contest that had already become decidedly uncompetitive. But the margin was significant. Virginia, home to a large federal force and businesses that rely on federal contracts, was particularly affected by DOGE and the federal shutdown. That would have given any Democratic nominee an automatic edge right now. Spanberger made this a central issue of her campaign, along with touting her pro-choice stance in the aftermath of the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Her Republican opponent, Winsome Earl-Sears, on the other hand, tried to make this a culture war contest. Borrowing a page from Donald Trump’s playbook, Earl-Sears ran attack ads trying to depict Spanberger as a radical on trans issues. But that strategy failed spectacularly.
It was enough of a blowout that even the scandal-plagued Democratic candidate for attorney general, Jay Jones, whose vile texts advocating violence toward his opponent could have legitimately been a deal breaker for voters, won by six points,despite polls slightly favoring the incumbent Republican. Downballot, Democrats also flipped 13 seats to turn their narrow state house majority into a two-thirds supermajority. Virginia has been trending blue for some time, but these results take the state out of being a competitive blue-ish purple and more firmly into safe Democratic territory.
New Jersey
If Republicans had any hope for some good news, it was in the Garden State. Term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy is deeply unpopular. Kamala Harris’s 52% had been the weakestDemocratic performance in a presidential race since 1992. The saga of Sen. Bob Menendez, now in prison for bribery, acting as a foreign agent, extortion, wire fraud, and obstruction of justice, turned a spotlight on New Jersey’s already notoriously corrupt politics. The Republican gubernatorial candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, had overperformed in his narrow defeat by Murphy in 2021.
But it wasn’t to be. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) took the governor’s mansion by double digit margins, despite polls indicating the race might be much closer.
New York City
In the evening’s marquee contest, 34-year-old state legislator and professed democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani became the next mayor of the Big Apple, the first Muslim— a naturalized American to boot—to win the office. Mamdani’s main opponent was problematic ex-governor Andrew Cuomo, who continued to run as an independent after losing the Democratic primary. The Republican, colorful local character Curtis Sliwa, was reduced to single digits but refused pressure to drop out of the race. As it happens, it wouldn’t have made the difference: Mamdani won just over 50% to Cuomo’s 42%.
Mamdani ran a savvy campaign, rocketing from obscurity to become a darling of progressives nationwide and energizing younger voters. If moderate Democrats had floated a more palatable candidate instead of a notoriously disgraced sex pest, Mamdani probably wouldn’t have won the Democratic nomination and thus the general election. Instead of fuming at the party’s left flank for finding their own breakout star, the party’s centrist wing would do well to be a bit less strategically inept next time.
Mamdani prevailed not only because he made New York’s notoriously high cost of living his central issue but also because he vigorously attacked Trump’s draconian actions against immigrants and political opponents.
Georgia
Georgia held an election for two seats on the state’s Public Service Commission, in charge of rate-setting for utilities. In a state where Democrats haven’t won a non-federal statewide election since 2006, they took both by an astonishing 25 points, boosted not just by the national blue wave but also public dissatisfaction with skyrocketing electricity prices. These elections might not have been primarily about Trump or the national trends, but Democrats doing so well nationwide was no doubt a boost. It also bodes well for the re-election chances ofDemocratic Senator Jon Ossoff, expected to be one of the key Senate battles in 2026.
Mississippi
In state legislative elections, Democrats picked up enough seats to break the Republican supermajority in the state senate, which the GOP has held for more than a decade. It’s more of a symbolic victory, since Republicans aren’t in need of the two-thirds threshold to override vetoes while they also hold the governor’s mansion. But it represents a significant morale boost in a state where Democrats have long been relegated to the margins.
Pennsylvania
Judicial retention elections, where incumbents are put to an up-or-down vote, are usually sleepy affairs. It is astronomically rare for voters to fire a sitting judge; in some states with the practice, it has literally never happened. But with three Democratic justices on the state supreme court up for retention, Republicans launched a dedicated push to turn out voters for their removal.They didn’t even succeed in making a dent: the justices were allretained by more than 20-point margins. Because of this, Democrats are guaranteed to retain their majority on the court through the 2028 presidential election, when major cases in a key swing state might come before them.
California
Gov. Gavin Newsom took something of a gamble on Prop 50, a push for Democrats to retaliate in the mid-decade redistricting war set off by Trump’s push for red states to gerrymander Democrats out of as many seats as possible. Independent redistricting commissions, like the one adopted by California voters as the signature initiative of then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, are broadly popular. Republicans had initially planned to spend big on fighting Newsom’s proposal to temporarily set aside the commission’s maps and allow the legislature to redraw lines. But these efforts collapsed as polls made it clear it wouldn’t be close: Prop 50 passed with more than 60% (votes are still being counted). It is expected the new maps will push five more congressional districts into the Democratic column, cancelling out the redrawn map in Texas which eliminated five blue districts.
Democrats have been debating whether to take on Trump’s failure to deliver on his economic promises or his authoritarian agenda as its electoral strategy. But Spanberger’s, Mamdani’s, and Sherill’s wins, plus Newsom’s redistricting victory, suggest that the two issues are not separable. Authoritarians are bad for both liberty and the economy. A state hell bent on spreading terror can’t deliver widespread prosperity.
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Thank you for offering a paid tier I shy away from "free" antisocial media platforms because they are a magnet for bad actors.
My take away from yesterdays election results was that it may have given Democrats some guidance on a way forward. Even Mamdani's win had lessons in it above the fact that he was running against two deeply problematic opponents. Obviously the Democratic establishment will be working 24/7 limit his Mayoralty to a single term.
It also should give a morale boost to Democrats. Imagine what the world would be thinking if the outcome were reversed and the Republicans had still prevailed even by close margins. But the consistent pattern and the wide margins signal that they can push forward in a more aggressive fashion toward the midterms with a little more confidence at least.
In my opinion average voters after only 10 months are experiencing severe Trump fatigue. They are tired of the economic promises that have not begun to be delivered and even in his signature issue of immigration control which is popular voters are not liking the way it is being enforced.
Voters aren't educated therefore there is no incentive to enter the field of politics with the intent to demonstrate expertise or integrity. An educated voter base would be able to accurately utilize the power they have to repudiate an incumbent political official with no expertise or integrity and advocate for their personal rights and liberties.