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David Piepgrass's avatar

I think interpreting this post is kind of difficult because the word "elite" is left without a definition, and generally it felt vague, aimless and hard to pay attention to, as I wondered: how does this matter? In a dictatorship, monarchy or oligarchy a small number of elites rule; in a democracy a bigger number of different elites, some of whose bums can be voted out by non-elites, have varying types and amounts of power. So clearly I'd rather have democracy for reasons other than "elites lack power". If elites are people who are "on top" in some sense, there will always be elites. I'm not saying it's a good thing, but it's certainly a thing that is.

> old forms of liberalism are dying, but new forms have yet to be born.

I don't think it's hard to see how things can be improved. It is said that "democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others", but I disagree. I say democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others that have been tried, and we haven't tried very many. Mostly people call for what has already been tried before―"monarchy", "socialism", "democracy", so that's all we ever get.

I do think it is super important to have *some* democracy. If things are going wrong and they're going wrong because the government screwed up, we the people should always be able to get a new government. But people do, in fact, have poor judgment. They choose which candidate "sounds good" from a few 30-second clips on TV or TokTok, according to their biases from watching their favorite shows that misunderstand or misrepresent how the world works.

It struck me that in in the last election in my country, when I looked at the two leading candidates' web sites, they had almost nothing to say! Both of them offered a very short and very underwhelming case for why I should vote for them. You know those economic difficulties that affected the whole first world after the pandemic? It caused democracies around the world to flip governments: right-wing governments became left-wing and left-wing governments became right-wing. Because the common man couldn't actually tell who was at fault, they blamed the government automatically and voted them out. That's part of how we got Trump by the way. that's part of how we got Hitler (as Matt Yglesias says: "The real story of Hitler’s rise is mostly a history of contingency — bad choices by specific influential politicians first wrecked the German economy and then handed power to Hitler... In the 1928 German federal election, the Nazi Party got 2.63 percent of the vote, putting them in ninth place" ... and this rose to 37.3% in July 1932 after some elites messed up, and the rest is history, a history of messing up even more)

Something that bothers me about standard democracies, though, is that elected representatives typically have poor judgment too, because the skills they need to get elected are not the same skills they need to govern. If you want to get elected you have to say the right things in your caucuses or primaries full of ideologues, and sound "authentic" to your social media followers and on the podcasts you visit. Not honest, not skilled, not competent, "authentic". Well, Trump *sounds authentic*.

The most plausible improvement to democracy that I see off the top of my head are jury systems, where educated people are chosen at random to either directly act as leaders and technocrats, or to directly judge legislators and potential legislators (to swap out bad ones for good ones), or at minimum to study and put out nonpartisan reports and proposals about topics of interest to the people, while the main electoral system is left alone.

But also, I've always said that if we're going to do democracy, we should do it right. First-past-the-post is the worst system. Instant-runoff voting, also known as alternative vote or RCV, is clearly better, but remains the second-worst. Proportional representation, direct representation and simple direct representation are all much better IMO.

But actually talking about what systems work better is moot. What matters in the end is how to accomplish change, given that whoever is elected under the current system is usually more skilled at winning *in the current system* than they would be at winning in a better system. This is a general problem across all systems of government: whoever is in charge *always* has some incentive to keep the system as it is. And even if they feel a change is needed, again, what reason is there to expect that those people in charge are competent to choose a new system? They could delegate, of course; they could recognize that social-system engineering isn't their wheelhouse and try to look for credible people to engineer a better system. But even then, it's hard to tell who the best engineers are when you aren't an engineer. And politics is not an environment where engineers or scientists tend to perform well and win the necessary popularity contests. What can I say, it's a tough problem.

BigDaddy52's avatar

I was about to answer NO to your headline, then decided PERHAPS in the Madisonian sense. Still only successful with an educated, virtuous electorate and elites.

So. Not in our lifetimes.

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