The Maginot Line will hold as it did in 1940. How often do reassuring arguments not survive contact with the enemy? Trump and MAGA are more extreme and have more resources including smart people than their opponents want to acknowledge. Trump is laughing at us. He has told us what he plans to do and his opponents refuse to believe it. The Nazis wrote books about their intentions, 1925 "Mein Kampf", 1937 Heinz Guderian "Achtung! Panzer!" on ideas developed in Germany on what allies later called Blitzkrieg. The allies knew all the ingredients but restrained their imagination to avoid fitting the pieces together. Before a disaster, reassuring voices are always more acceptable.
Great article, my one caveat is that I think Trump would be able to swing the balance if the election comes down to a few legitimately contested seats in states that count mail-ins slowly. Similar to Bush v. Gore, it’s much easier to steal a legitimately quite close election than the landslide that 2026 is shaping up to be.
Nonetheless, blue states with significant mail in voting should do everything in their power to count votes quickly rather than let the process drag on for weeks
I simply don't see a scenario where the President allows a Democratic majority to coalesce.
Regardless of how self-defeating or shameless the attempt will be, the Executive will use all lies, influence, and coercion if necessary to claim "his true-elected officials" are the only House members sworn in - even if that requires Johnson to illegally proceed as Speaker despite precedent. The fallout then entirely falls upon the courage of the States and the actual officials to act, practically, according to the reality of functional treason. At that point the damage is done regardless: the country has duplicate and dueling bodies.
Relying on states is my major concern. Red states now send their national guard troops to support illegal activities in other states. Blue states allow ICE agents to engage in illegal activities on their streets. Also, what’s another bogus emergency to Trump? He will use opposition to the save act as evidence of fraud and use the military to support this myth.
Yes, whether we like it or not, these states are the main balancing body now to Federal power. Federal checks no longer function. The states states have to resist federalisation, or it's all done for practically.
Good overview and argument, but I think the conclusion is false. “Even with selectively targeting certain cities and states, the number of places that could be targeted [by 20k members of ICE] would be relatively miniscule.” [section 4] In the “Big Beautiful [budget] Bill”, the 20k members of ICE were granted $170 billion, the 160k members of the US Marines were granted $54 billion. It seems highly likely that the number of “agents” in ICE will be dramatically expanded. These recruits will almost certainly come from the estimated 20% of the US armed forces (military+reserve+national guards) who have strong MAGA beliefs. So 20% of 2 million is 400k potential recruits, who could be assembled quickly into this partisan federal paramilitary force, a potential 20 fold increase compared to ICE today.
Trump will ignore state laws in blue states, as he does federal laws. Another possibility is taking over elections in selected blue cities, rather than just “open thuggery” which will backfire as you state. The excuse will be that this is where the fantasy of millions of votes from illegal immigrants are happening, due to the equally imaginary so-called mass Democrat corruption. The absurd Trump propaganda is that corrupt Democrats have been bringing millions of illegal immigrants to America to vote for them. There is zero evidence and faulty logic, since why would an illegal immigrant risk deportation by doing this. The subtext is that Trump is making false claims that he will rig the system, not for billionaires, but for so-called “Real Americans”, his MAGA base (15% US population). Who is not a “Real American” in this MAGA far right scheme is not a legal issue, but a cultural one, which his regime will define, hence the tens of millions of illegal immigrants Trump claims exist.
“Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid in Atlanta” is the only competitive senate race from the perspective of universal free and fair elections, but Trump intends to rig elections in selected blue cities. In 2020 margins in senate races in swing states in metro areas were around 20 points. So on November 3rd, imagine tens of thousands of armed MAGA loyalists from the Trump regime’s protection army, turning up in a blue city of lets say 1.4 million people. This city has 200 polling stations and two mail-in counting centers. The armed MAGA loyalists outnumber election staff by ten to one.
They take over the election in that city at the source level. Voting is allowed, but all ballots are treated as essentially provisional. When it comes to validation before counting, the MAGA loyalists use lists of “approved” voters the DOJ has cooked up, and throw out a third to a half of all ballots. In suburban areas House districts are switched from blue to red. On a state level the Democrat candidate for the Senate is denied enough urban Democrat votes to win. The FBI then request that the ballots and election records be removed together with stored previous election materials, to allow an investigation into the massive fraud in this blue city that has been exposed by this so-called “strong free and fair election” in Trump’s words. This is after the fact justification for the Trump regime’s illegal unconstitutional act in “nationalizing elections” in this blue city.
There is now no way the state election officials can prove that the vote was rigged as the evidence has been taken. Trump by this stage has the manpower to repeat this in perhaps ten selected blue cities. The falsely elected MAGA representatives and senators are then seated in Congress. The House has a tradition of seating members until disputes are resolved. In the Senate elected members are seated even if elections are disputed, as long as they have certification papers from the relevant state authorities. If a state refuses to certify an election, a court can then issue a writ of mandamus to demand they do so, and if they still refuse can take over the certification process.
So if the 2026 elections are rigged by the Trump regime, what next? The House passes bills that make rigging the larger and more important 2028 election easier. Republicans in the Senate drop the cloture convention that requires 60 votes to stop filibusters and so bring controversial bills to a vote. The rationale for keeping it is gone, as the Trump 2.0 project is about there never being another Democrat administration, who could use the lack of cloture against the Republicans. So the election rigging bills pass into law.
In the same way bills are passed to expand Trump’s regime protection paramilitary force by a factor of ten. Recruits are from the 15% of the US population (52 million) who are strong MAGA loyalists, which yields 12 million young male potential recruits. The regime security force would then be 4 million, more than 1% of the population, on a similar percentage to Iran, which has a high percentage of security forces compared to Russia and China. Democracy in America is now dead and there is nothing opponents can do about it at this stage, the process is irreversible without outside pressure which does not exist in a far-right ethno-nationalist world (essentially fascist). As the January National Defense Strategy states, America will directly support so-called “patriotic parties” in Europe, code for fascist parties.
Sure this is being a “doomster”, as there really is impending calamity. This does not imply that there is no available solution. The first step is to admit and digest that there is a very large and concrete threat to American democracy. The enemy has been given by decades of establishment stupidity the keys to federal power. Inequality and total debt (private+public+government) have risen to the levels as percentage of GDP last seen in 1930. Trump has been hired by oligarchical Republican Party donors to ensure there is no FDR style economic reform, that history does not repeat itself and US democracy is not saved this time.
The Trump regime can be halted by stopping the rigging of elections in November. If Trump can only field 400k armed federal agents who are MAGA loyalists, then the opposition needs to ensure he needs 4 million to rig midterm elections. Blue states need to erect as many barriers as possible that makes taking over elections physically ten times harder. There needs to be a campaign by Democrats in Congress to demand that the military “defend the constitution" against a regime that effectively declares it wants to destroy it for the benefit of the morbidly wealthy. They need to state openly that it is not enough to not follow illegal orders. That treason by this administration should be actively fought by all those who took the oath, even when the President is the domestic enemy to the Constitution. Defending democracy is ranked above obeying the orders of a false President. To be timid ensures disaster for all those who do not support the Trump regime, since they will use all the power they gain to persecute anyone who is a potential threat or has criticised them, the only sensible path is to go on the offensive now.
With the minor spoiler of Nebraska SOS Bob Evnen just handing over voter info to the DOJ, this article is an excellent summation. I spent 37 years working with honest election workers from both major parties and unaffiliated volunteers and have been sickened by the misinformation pumped into the public square by the Trump administrations and their allies. Unfortunately, a lot of the nonsense is sticking - the bilge in the comments sections of any election-related story confirms this. It's a massive insult to all election workers, particularly the Republicans, who're being painted as corrupt or too stupid to do their jobs and help provide the checks and balances that do exist in the real world.
Thanks Andy. I have to say, I'm more worried than this article suggests I should be. I don't think they stress-tested the system last year for no reason.
When you say the states would conduct a "canceled" election, I'm not sure that's true. Red states wouldn't. Which means you'd have odd fights over quorum.
You're right about Dechler's. But that doesn't mean Ds won't just let themselves be pushed out anyway because of their rule-following fetish and hatred of confrontation.
Then there's the inordinate power of the Clerk, which no one has worried about until now because no one would ever weaponize it. Except Clerk Miller or Clerk Bannon absolutely would.
The problem with 2021 comparisons is that Republicans behaved the way they did, ultimately, because they still feared participating in a losing coup. But then we proved that, actually, nothing happens to you if you do that. And if the Rs had the possibility to win on those challenges, they would have upped the ante and gotten everyone to vote to do so. Constant death threats wear people down.
But the real brew is simply complicated rules, then using those rules to gin up conspiracy theories (harder to know the rules means easier to claim lots of people voted wrong), then using that as an excuse to oppose seating people. (Plus things like arguing that a state's map was illegally adopted because it wasn't done by the legislature or something like that.)
Suppose Ds don't chicken out of a fight, and instead stand firm, don't step aside, cast their votes for speaker, etc. What, exactly, will Ds do when ICE shows up and drags them out of the chamber on some flimsy excuse? (Speech and Debate? Never heard of it.) Or when a few Rs pull guns? How do you win when a) you define victory as requiring you to play by democratic rules and norms, and b) the other side hates those?
Just like they didn't test the system for no reason, ICE isn't seeking out fights with members of Congress (who are legally in the right) for no reason, either.
Andy great breakdown, really appreciate the article. This topic should be everyone's focus. However, we should be past panic and planning for civil war (At least preparing as an individual). WAIT! WAIT! Please hear me out. I am not an unhinged fearmonger I swear. But, it's at the point, someone has to argue this so good rational people can make a choice. If not they will avoid it too long.
Your article's prediction is commiting the same error that everyone has so far when dealing with Trump. Underestimating his and his supporters lack of moral gaurdrails and thiers absolute hate of the status quo. Time and time again resonable people have said "that wont happen because ....". Then they go one step further and we fight it, but the damage is done. Dont fall in that trap again. I am sorry, but if Trump doesn't get what he wants to effect the out come of the midterms, it will be evidence of democrats cheating. This is all he needs to initiate corrupt DOJ investigation, and the whole gamit of federal pressure. Any attempt to fight these will be more evidence showing guilty intent.Bip bap boom, the whole slippery slope landslides.
Ok now assume Trump gets what he wants in election tampering. Is America going to accept the results? I think not. This will start an election outcome battle that can only escalate in the courts until Trump will have no option but to retaliate with everything. His whole motivation will be to avoid impeachment. To him it will be all or nothing.
Finally, lets exsplore the option we somehow get out of the midterms without triggering a landslide settling on civil war. Trump and goons will without a doubt move towards nullifying the '28 election or 2 term limit. There are too many options to game plan down that road, but once that path is started, does anyone think he will give up without going nuclear - Thats nuclear in the figurative not literal ( I would hope)?
So, am I out of my grey matter? Are there any non-civil war probabilities? Of course.
1) Trump could conceed to the norm and abide by the rules = not likely.
2) Trump could get what he wants for interferance at the midterms and still lose. Impeachment or lame duck could finish off the last 2 years. However, for this to end well number 1 would have to apply = not likely.
3) Trump could get what he wants and oppositional Americans accepts Trumps continued presidency regardless of legitimacy to avoid cinflict. = not likely and I F'n hope not
4) Any or all of his crazy finally loses him Republican support, and more importatly, they are loud about it. Without the loud disavowing Maga support will still run rampent, past extremist . As I have mentioned, elections are a catalist. Voting wont fix the problem. Until the last week, I would have said this possibility is very unlikely too. Now = a maybe. I say 30% chance.
Defeating Trump without going where no one wants to go, is like trying to prove something doesn't exist. He is free from truth, and so far half the country is willing to live in it. We underestimate where he is willing to twist reality at our own peril.
Should we panic? I will always agree not to panic, but worry and watch? I will put it to you what seems a more favorable position to take:
A)Once again trust that sanity will prevale, and again predict Trump's failure, but if wrong, we stand shocked and unprepared for the chaos of civil war? (Remeber we are 6 months to possible trigger event)
OR
B) Learn from recent history's mistakes. Assume Trump will burn anything to not fail. Then prepare to be in the fight effectively protecting family, friends, community, and democracy in the event of worst case senerio.
Either option allows us to still worry, watch, hope, and fight Trump to avoid the horrible finality of war with our neighbors. Only option B however, in my opinion, is the wise course of action. The time for worry and watch is over. Prudence demands preparing to at least not be a victum.
Andy great breakdown, really appreciate the article. This topic should be everyone's focus. However, we should be past panic and planning for civil war (At least preparing as an individual). WAIT! WAIT! Please hear me out. I am not an unhinged fearmonger I swear. But, it's at the point, someone has to argue this so good rational people can make a choice. If not they will avoid it too long.
Your article's prediction is commiting the same error that everyone has so far when dealing with Trump. Underestimating his and his supporters lack of moral gaurdrails and thiers absolute hate of the status quo. Time and time again resonable people have said "that wont happen because ....". Then they go one step further and we fight it, but the damage is done. Dont fall in that trap again.
I am sorry, but if Trump doesn't get what he wants to effect the out come of the midterms, it will be evidence of democrats cheating. This is all he needs to initiate corrupt DOJ investigation, and the whole gamit of federal pressure. Any attempt to fight these will be more evidence showing guilty intent.Bip bap boom, the whole slippery slope landslides.
Ok now assume Trump gets what he wants in election tampering. Is America going to accept the results? I think not. This will start an election outcome battle that can only escalate in the courts until Trump will have no option but to retaliate with everything. His whole motivation will be to avoid impeachment. To him it will be all or nothing.
Finally, lets exsplore the option we somehow get out of the midterms without triggering a landslide settling on civil war. Trump and goons will without a doubt move towards nullifying the '28 election or 2 term limit. There are too many options to game plan down that road, but once that path is started, does anyone think he will give up without going nuclear - Thats nuclear in the figurative not literal ( I would hope)?
So, am I out of my grey matter? Are there any non-civil war probabilities? Of course.
1) Trump could conceed to the norm and abide by the rules = not likely.
2) Trump could get what he wants for interferance at the midterms and still lose. Impeachment or lame duck could finish off the last 2 years. However, for this to end well number 1 would have to apply = not likely.
3) Trump could get what he wants and oppositional Americans accepts Trumps continued presidency regardless of legitimacy to avoid cinflict. = not likely and I F'n hope not
4) Any or all of his crazy finally loses him Republican support, and more importatly, they are loud about it. Without the loud disavowing Maga support will still run rampent, past extremist . As I have mentioned, elections are a catalist. Voting wont fix the problem. Until the last week, I would have said this possibility is very unlikely too. Now = a maybe. I say 30% chance.
Defeating Trump without going where no one wants to go, is like trying to prove something doesn't exist. He is free from truth, and so far half the country is willing to live in it. We underestimate where he is willing to twist reality at our own peril.
Should we panic? I will always agree not to panic, but worry and watch? I will put it to you what seems a more favorable position to take:
A)Once again trust that sanity will prevale, and again predict Trump's failure, but if wrong, we stand shocked and unprepared for the chaos of civil war? (Remeber we are 6 months to possible trigger event)
OR
B) Learn from recent history's mistakes. Assume Trump will burn anything to not fail. Then prepare to be in the fight effectively protecting family, friends, community, and democracy in the event of worst case senerio
Either option allows us to still worry, watch, hope, and fight Trump to avoid the horrible finality of war with our neighbors. Only option B however, in my opinion, is the wise course of action. The time for worry and watch is over. Prudence demands preparing to at least not be a victum.
I do not agree with your conclusion. This can I say is an excellent article; it is very informative, erudite and clear on the matter of US elections. It also revealing on how people deduce Trump's motives for his absurd campaign to discredit US elections. I do not know how far you need to go back to find a more dangerous and ridiculous figure than Trump.
However I start from history and economics. The poilitical-economic system is at breaking point in the US, as it was in 1930. Inequality and total debt (sum of public, private and government debt) as a % of GDP is above 1930 levels. In essence US democracy cannot continue with his level of inequality and debt. In 1932 the American people voted in FDR to implement economic reform. inequality and total debt then fell, reaching a low point in the 1970s. Trump was hired by rich R donors to stop history repeating.
Thank you for this. It is always good to get some perspective and avoid catastrophizing.
The Maginot Line will hold as it did in 1940. How often do reassuring arguments not survive contact with the enemy? Trump and MAGA are more extreme and have more resources including smart people than their opponents want to acknowledge. Trump is laughing at us. He has told us what he plans to do and his opponents refuse to believe it. The Nazis wrote books about their intentions, 1925 "Mein Kampf", 1937 Heinz Guderian "Achtung! Panzer!" on ideas developed in Germany on what allies later called Blitzkrieg. The allies knew all the ingredients but restrained their imagination to avoid fitting the pieces together. Before a disaster, reassuring voices are always more acceptable.
Great article, my one caveat is that I think Trump would be able to swing the balance if the election comes down to a few legitimately contested seats in states that count mail-ins slowly. Similar to Bush v. Gore, it’s much easier to steal a legitimately quite close election than the landslide that 2026 is shaping up to be.
Nonetheless, blue states with significant mail in voting should do everything in their power to count votes quickly rather than let the process drag on for weeks
I simply don't see a scenario where the President allows a Democratic majority to coalesce.
Regardless of how self-defeating or shameless the attempt will be, the Executive will use all lies, influence, and coercion if necessary to claim "his true-elected officials" are the only House members sworn in - even if that requires Johnson to illegally proceed as Speaker despite precedent. The fallout then entirely falls upon the courage of the States and the actual officials to act, practically, according to the reality of functional treason. At that point the damage is done regardless: the country has duplicate and dueling bodies.
Relying on states is my major concern. Red states now send their national guard troops to support illegal activities in other states. Blue states allow ICE agents to engage in illegal activities on their streets. Also, what’s another bogus emergency to Trump? He will use opposition to the save act as evidence of fraud and use the military to support this myth.
Yes, whether we like it or not, these states are the main balancing body now to Federal power. Federal checks no longer function. The states states have to resist federalisation, or it's all done for practically.
Yep. Which means Ds need backbones. (The exception to the rule is state AGs who have been excellent! But in the end, they can only do so much.)
Why didn’t you mention bomb threats being called in at polling stations, like there were in 2024?
Good overview and argument, but I think the conclusion is false. “Even with selectively targeting certain cities and states, the number of places that could be targeted [by 20k members of ICE] would be relatively miniscule.” [section 4] In the “Big Beautiful [budget] Bill”, the 20k members of ICE were granted $170 billion, the 160k members of the US Marines were granted $54 billion. It seems highly likely that the number of “agents” in ICE will be dramatically expanded. These recruits will almost certainly come from the estimated 20% of the US armed forces (military+reserve+national guards) who have strong MAGA beliefs. So 20% of 2 million is 400k potential recruits, who could be assembled quickly into this partisan federal paramilitary force, a potential 20 fold increase compared to ICE today.
Trump will ignore state laws in blue states, as he does federal laws. Another possibility is taking over elections in selected blue cities, rather than just “open thuggery” which will backfire as you state. The excuse will be that this is where the fantasy of millions of votes from illegal immigrants are happening, due to the equally imaginary so-called mass Democrat corruption. The absurd Trump propaganda is that corrupt Democrats have been bringing millions of illegal immigrants to America to vote for them. There is zero evidence and faulty logic, since why would an illegal immigrant risk deportation by doing this. The subtext is that Trump is making false claims that he will rig the system, not for billionaires, but for so-called “Real Americans”, his MAGA base (15% US population). Who is not a “Real American” in this MAGA far right scheme is not a legal issue, but a cultural one, which his regime will define, hence the tens of millions of illegal immigrants Trump claims exist.
“Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid in Atlanta” is the only competitive senate race from the perspective of universal free and fair elections, but Trump intends to rig elections in selected blue cities. In 2020 margins in senate races in swing states in metro areas were around 20 points. So on November 3rd, imagine tens of thousands of armed MAGA loyalists from the Trump regime’s protection army, turning up in a blue city of lets say 1.4 million people. This city has 200 polling stations and two mail-in counting centers. The armed MAGA loyalists outnumber election staff by ten to one.
They take over the election in that city at the source level. Voting is allowed, but all ballots are treated as essentially provisional. When it comes to validation before counting, the MAGA loyalists use lists of “approved” voters the DOJ has cooked up, and throw out a third to a half of all ballots. In suburban areas House districts are switched from blue to red. On a state level the Democrat candidate for the Senate is denied enough urban Democrat votes to win. The FBI then request that the ballots and election records be removed together with stored previous election materials, to allow an investigation into the massive fraud in this blue city that has been exposed by this so-called “strong free and fair election” in Trump’s words. This is after the fact justification for the Trump regime’s illegal unconstitutional act in “nationalizing elections” in this blue city.
There is now no way the state election officials can prove that the vote was rigged as the evidence has been taken. Trump by this stage has the manpower to repeat this in perhaps ten selected blue cities. The falsely elected MAGA representatives and senators are then seated in Congress. The House has a tradition of seating members until disputes are resolved. In the Senate elected members are seated even if elections are disputed, as long as they have certification papers from the relevant state authorities. If a state refuses to certify an election, a court can then issue a writ of mandamus to demand they do so, and if they still refuse can take over the certification process.
So if the 2026 elections are rigged by the Trump regime, what next? The House passes bills that make rigging the larger and more important 2028 election easier. Republicans in the Senate drop the cloture convention that requires 60 votes to stop filibusters and so bring controversial bills to a vote. The rationale for keeping it is gone, as the Trump 2.0 project is about there never being another Democrat administration, who could use the lack of cloture against the Republicans. So the election rigging bills pass into law.
In the same way bills are passed to expand Trump’s regime protection paramilitary force by a factor of ten. Recruits are from the 15% of the US population (52 million) who are strong MAGA loyalists, which yields 12 million young male potential recruits. The regime security force would then be 4 million, more than 1% of the population, on a similar percentage to Iran, which has a high percentage of security forces compared to Russia and China. Democracy in America is now dead and there is nothing opponents can do about it at this stage, the process is irreversible without outside pressure which does not exist in a far-right ethno-nationalist world (essentially fascist). As the January National Defense Strategy states, America will directly support so-called “patriotic parties” in Europe, code for fascist parties.
Sure this is being a “doomster”, as there really is impending calamity. This does not imply that there is no available solution. The first step is to admit and digest that there is a very large and concrete threat to American democracy. The enemy has been given by decades of establishment stupidity the keys to federal power. Inequality and total debt (private+public+government) have risen to the levels as percentage of GDP last seen in 1930. Trump has been hired by oligarchical Republican Party donors to ensure there is no FDR style economic reform, that history does not repeat itself and US democracy is not saved this time.
The Trump regime can be halted by stopping the rigging of elections in November. If Trump can only field 400k armed federal agents who are MAGA loyalists, then the opposition needs to ensure he needs 4 million to rig midterm elections. Blue states need to erect as many barriers as possible that makes taking over elections physically ten times harder. There needs to be a campaign by Democrats in Congress to demand that the military “defend the constitution" against a regime that effectively declares it wants to destroy it for the benefit of the morbidly wealthy. They need to state openly that it is not enough to not follow illegal orders. That treason by this administration should be actively fought by all those who took the oath, even when the President is the domestic enemy to the Constitution. Defending democracy is ranked above obeying the orders of a false President. To be timid ensures disaster for all those who do not support the Trump regime, since they will use all the power they gain to persecute anyone who is a potential threat or has criticised them, the only sensible path is to go on the offensive now.
Real question: Do Democrats EVER interfere with free and democratic elections?
Yes, and you'll be shocked to know when!
I'd love for you to expound on your statement.
With the minor spoiler of Nebraska SOS Bob Evnen just handing over voter info to the DOJ, this article is an excellent summation. I spent 37 years working with honest election workers from both major parties and unaffiliated volunteers and have been sickened by the misinformation pumped into the public square by the Trump administrations and their allies. Unfortunately, a lot of the nonsense is sticking - the bilge in the comments sections of any election-related story confirms this. It's a massive insult to all election workers, particularly the Republicans, who're being painted as corrupt or too stupid to do their jobs and help provide the checks and balances that do exist in the real world.
Thanks Andy. I have to say, I'm more worried than this article suggests I should be. I don't think they stress-tested the system last year for no reason.
When you say the states would conduct a "canceled" election, I'm not sure that's true. Red states wouldn't. Which means you'd have odd fights over quorum.
You're right about Dechler's. But that doesn't mean Ds won't just let themselves be pushed out anyway because of their rule-following fetish and hatred of confrontation.
Then there's the inordinate power of the Clerk, which no one has worried about until now because no one would ever weaponize it. Except Clerk Miller or Clerk Bannon absolutely would.
The problem with 2021 comparisons is that Republicans behaved the way they did, ultimately, because they still feared participating in a losing coup. But then we proved that, actually, nothing happens to you if you do that. And if the Rs had the possibility to win on those challenges, they would have upped the ante and gotten everyone to vote to do so. Constant death threats wear people down.
But the real brew is simply complicated rules, then using those rules to gin up conspiracy theories (harder to know the rules means easier to claim lots of people voted wrong), then using that as an excuse to oppose seating people. (Plus things like arguing that a state's map was illegally adopted because it wasn't done by the legislature or something like that.)
Suppose Ds don't chicken out of a fight, and instead stand firm, don't step aside, cast their votes for speaker, etc. What, exactly, will Ds do when ICE shows up and drags them out of the chamber on some flimsy excuse? (Speech and Debate? Never heard of it.) Or when a few Rs pull guns? How do you win when a) you define victory as requiring you to play by democratic rules and norms, and b) the other side hates those?
Just like they didn't test the system for no reason, ICE isn't seeking out fights with members of Congress (who are legally in the right) for no reason, either.
Andy great breakdown, really appreciate the article. This topic should be everyone's focus. However, we should be past panic and planning for civil war (At least preparing as an individual). WAIT! WAIT! Please hear me out. I am not an unhinged fearmonger I swear. But, it's at the point, someone has to argue this so good rational people can make a choice. If not they will avoid it too long.
Your article's prediction is commiting the same error that everyone has so far when dealing with Trump. Underestimating his and his supporters lack of moral gaurdrails and thiers absolute hate of the status quo. Time and time again resonable people have said "that wont happen because ....". Then they go one step further and we fight it, but the damage is done. Dont fall in that trap again. I am sorry, but if Trump doesn't get what he wants to effect the out come of the midterms, it will be evidence of democrats cheating. This is all he needs to initiate corrupt DOJ investigation, and the whole gamit of federal pressure. Any attempt to fight these will be more evidence showing guilty intent.Bip bap boom, the whole slippery slope landslides.
Ok now assume Trump gets what he wants in election tampering. Is America going to accept the results? I think not. This will start an election outcome battle that can only escalate in the courts until Trump will have no option but to retaliate with everything. His whole motivation will be to avoid impeachment. To him it will be all or nothing.
Finally, lets exsplore the option we somehow get out of the midterms without triggering a landslide settling on civil war. Trump and goons will without a doubt move towards nullifying the '28 election or 2 term limit. There are too many options to game plan down that road, but once that path is started, does anyone think he will give up without going nuclear - Thats nuclear in the figurative not literal ( I would hope)?
So, am I out of my grey matter? Are there any non-civil war probabilities? Of course.
1) Trump could conceed to the norm and abide by the rules = not likely.
2) Trump could get what he wants for interferance at the midterms and still lose. Impeachment or lame duck could finish off the last 2 years. However, for this to end well number 1 would have to apply = not likely.
3) Trump could get what he wants and oppositional Americans accepts Trumps continued presidency regardless of legitimacy to avoid cinflict. = not likely and I F'n hope not
4) Any or all of his crazy finally loses him Republican support, and more importatly, they are loud about it. Without the loud disavowing Maga support will still run rampent, past extremist . As I have mentioned, elections are a catalist. Voting wont fix the problem. Until the last week, I would have said this possibility is very unlikely too. Now = a maybe. I say 30% chance.
Defeating Trump without going where no one wants to go, is like trying to prove something doesn't exist. He is free from truth, and so far half the country is willing to live in it. We underestimate where he is willing to twist reality at our own peril.
Should we panic? I will always agree not to panic, but worry and watch? I will put it to you what seems a more favorable position to take:
A)Once again trust that sanity will prevale, and again predict Trump's failure, but if wrong, we stand shocked and unprepared for the chaos of civil war? (Remeber we are 6 months to possible trigger event)
OR
B) Learn from recent history's mistakes. Assume Trump will burn anything to not fail. Then prepare to be in the fight effectively protecting family, friends, community, and democracy in the event of worst case senerio.
Either option allows us to still worry, watch, hope, and fight Trump to avoid the horrible finality of war with our neighbors. Only option B however, in my opinion, is the wise course of action. The time for worry and watch is over. Prudence demands preparing to at least not be a victum.
Andy great breakdown, really appreciate the article. This topic should be everyone's focus. However, we should be past panic and planning for civil war (At least preparing as an individual). WAIT! WAIT! Please hear me out. I am not an unhinged fearmonger I swear. But, it's at the point, someone has to argue this so good rational people can make a choice. If not they will avoid it too long.
Your article's prediction is commiting the same error that everyone has so far when dealing with Trump. Underestimating his and his supporters lack of moral gaurdrails and thiers absolute hate of the status quo. Time and time again resonable people have said "that wont happen because ....". Then they go one step further and we fight it, but the damage is done. Dont fall in that trap again.
I am sorry, but if Trump doesn't get what he wants to effect the out come of the midterms, it will be evidence of democrats cheating. This is all he needs to initiate corrupt DOJ investigation, and the whole gamit of federal pressure. Any attempt to fight these will be more evidence showing guilty intent.Bip bap boom, the whole slippery slope landslides.
Ok now assume Trump gets what he wants in election tampering. Is America going to accept the results? I think not. This will start an election outcome battle that can only escalate in the courts until Trump will have no option but to retaliate with everything. His whole motivation will be to avoid impeachment. To him it will be all or nothing.
Finally, lets exsplore the option we somehow get out of the midterms without triggering a landslide settling on civil war. Trump and goons will without a doubt move towards nullifying the '28 election or 2 term limit. There are too many options to game plan down that road, but once that path is started, does anyone think he will give up without going nuclear - Thats nuclear in the figurative not literal ( I would hope)?
So, am I out of my grey matter? Are there any non-civil war probabilities? Of course.
1) Trump could conceed to the norm and abide by the rules = not likely.
2) Trump could get what he wants for interferance at the midterms and still lose. Impeachment or lame duck could finish off the last 2 years. However, for this to end well number 1 would have to apply = not likely.
3) Trump could get what he wants and oppositional Americans accepts Trumps continued presidency regardless of legitimacy to avoid cinflict. = not likely and I F'n hope not
4) Any or all of his crazy finally loses him Republican support, and more importatly, they are loud about it. Without the loud disavowing Maga support will still run rampent, past extremist . As I have mentioned, elections are a catalist. Voting wont fix the problem. Until the last week, I would have said this possibility is very unlikely too. Now = a maybe. I say 30% chance.
Defeating Trump without going where no one wants to go, is like trying to prove something doesn't exist. He is free from truth, and so far half the country is willing to live in it. We underestimate where he is willing to twist reality at our own peril.
Should we panic? I will always agree not to panic, but worry and watch? I will put it to you what seems a more favorable position to take:
A)Once again trust that sanity will prevale, and again predict Trump's failure, but if wrong, we stand shocked and unprepared for the chaos of civil war? (Remeber we are 6 months to possible trigger event)
OR
B) Learn from recent history's mistakes. Assume Trump will burn anything to not fail. Then prepare to be in the fight effectively protecting family, friends, community, and democracy in the event of worst case senerio
Either option allows us to still worry, watch, hope, and fight Trump to avoid the horrible finality of war with our neighbors. Only option B however, in my opinion, is the wise course of action. The time for worry and watch is over. Prudence demands preparing to at least not be a victum.
I do not agree with your conclusion. This can I say is an excellent article; it is very informative, erudite and clear on the matter of US elections. It also revealing on how people deduce Trump's motives for his absurd campaign to discredit US elections. I do not know how far you need to go back to find a more dangerous and ridiculous figure than Trump.
However I start from history and economics. The poilitical-economic system is at breaking point in the US, as it was in 1930. Inequality and total debt (sum of public, private and government debt) as a % of GDP is above 1930 levels. In essence US democracy cannot continue with his level of inequality and debt. In 1932 the American people voted in FDR to implement economic reform. inequality and total debt then fell, reaching a low point in the 1970s. Trump was hired by rich R donors to stop history repeating.
Thanks