Trump has a unique opportunity to topple the Shia Theocracy that rules Iran.
Agreed that he can’t do it on the cheap. The Mullahs won’t negotiate their own destruction. So he has to make sure he has enough military force on hand to decimate the Mullahs and their supporters. It has to all be done by air and sea, with no mass ground troops. The US has to first take out whatever is left of Iranian air defenses and communications systems. Then decapitation strikes to destroy most of the leadership. Then the next wave will take out ports and naval assets. Perhaps one or two oil facilities but no more - to make it clear to China it really should not intervene. Finally there will be several waves to destroy the Iranian missiles and drones. Iran will launch a thousand missiles or so, but they will cause relatively little damage. Maybe a few smaller US ships will be hit and also a few bases. This is not on the cheap. However it is not all that expensive either.
The CIA and Mossad can let key commanders know of ways to surrender their units and stage a coup. Civilians are demonstrating and will take US strikes as a signal to attack the regime. Many in the Iranian apparatus will find a way to disappear and end up in Moscow.
The regime is weaker now that it’s ever been. Inflation is over 35%. Unemployment is high. There are shortages of water and oil. The regime is deeply unpopular and is holding on by a strategy of mass repression. Neither Russia nor China will really do much to bail it out.
This is a regime that has been screaming “Death to America” from its inception. It is completely dedicated to the concept of Martyrdom in pursuit of jihad against the Great Satan, which of course is the US. If this opportunity is squandered and Iran gets a nuclear weapon, no one knows whether deterrence through mutually assured destruction will work. It would be incredibly imprudent to let the future unfold with this threat when we have a chance to eliminate it now. Toppling this regime will lead to a safer future for the US, for Europe, for Israel, and for moderate Sunni Arabs.
Venezuela was never about regime change every time an administration bootlicker like Lindsey Graham or Rubio waxes eloquently about freedom for the Venezuelan people Trump standing right next to him brings the conversation back to the only thing that matters to him which is the OIL.
If Trump can get a "deal" on nukes with no regime change he will be happy and have bragging rights for his Nobel aspirations. The deal he cuts will be more or less the same outline as the agreement Obama made but baptized with his name it will something like no one has ever seen before. Just as he will be just as pleased to give Putin half of Ukraine and walk away declaring victory.
It is not for nothing that America is called the "Great Satan" and at this time even considering pretending that Trump is a normal President running some sort of normal foreign or military policy is bonkers. Someday a war with Iran MIGHT be necessary but letting the "great Satan" himself run that war is a disaster.
The West’s consistent failures in foreign policy, from the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, to the inability to deal with a crumbling 3rd-world dictatorship, like Russia, or Iran, Israel failing to crush Hamas, etc, all suggests deep structural problems in foreign policy expertise that long predates Trump.
Yet discussion now focuses on the disruptions caused by the Trump administration, finding new reasons to evade facing the fundamental problems.
More broadly, I think this is a symptom of the wider failure of expertise in politics in general. This failure has led to us losing every single war, and the rise of authoritarianism on our own shores.
It also means, we have no real plan to address any of these serious issues, the consequence of which is the unopposed rise of characters like Trump.
Iranians are so united behind their king (Reza Pahlavi) that the next government has already been formed. Once the thugs are removed from a fee streets in Tehran, he will be back and the country will go back to normal with no power vacuum even for one day. I am an Iranian so I know.
it will all come to nothing anyway when you think about it. Trump is playing the game of risk. his advisor in the administration probably actually played that board game and thought they understood how war works. That’s just a thought. In reality there is no one advising him that note about the history of the Middle East if they did, this would never have happened. War is woven into their being.
Trump has a unique opportunity to topple the Shia Theocracy that rules Iran.
Agreed that he can’t do it on the cheap. The Mullahs won’t negotiate their own destruction. So he has to make sure he has enough military force on hand to decimate the Mullahs and their supporters. It has to all be done by air and sea, with no mass ground troops. The US has to first take out whatever is left of Iranian air defenses and communications systems. Then decapitation strikes to destroy most of the leadership. Then the next wave will take out ports and naval assets. Perhaps one or two oil facilities but no more - to make it clear to China it really should not intervene. Finally there will be several waves to destroy the Iranian missiles and drones. Iran will launch a thousand missiles or so, but they will cause relatively little damage. Maybe a few smaller US ships will be hit and also a few bases. This is not on the cheap. However it is not all that expensive either.
The CIA and Mossad can let key commanders know of ways to surrender their units and stage a coup. Civilians are demonstrating and will take US strikes as a signal to attack the regime. Many in the Iranian apparatus will find a way to disappear and end up in Moscow.
The regime is weaker now that it’s ever been. Inflation is over 35%. Unemployment is high. There are shortages of water and oil. The regime is deeply unpopular and is holding on by a strategy of mass repression. Neither Russia nor China will really do much to bail it out.
This is a regime that has been screaming “Death to America” from its inception. It is completely dedicated to the concept of Martyrdom in pursuit of jihad against the Great Satan, which of course is the US. If this opportunity is squandered and Iran gets a nuclear weapon, no one knows whether deterrence through mutually assured destruction will work. It would be incredibly imprudent to let the future unfold with this threat when we have a chance to eliminate it now. Toppling this regime will lead to a safer future for the US, for Europe, for Israel, and for moderate Sunni Arabs.
Airstrikes alone have never caused regime change. Anywhere. I don't see a good reason why this time would be different.
Venezuela was never about regime change every time an administration bootlicker like Lindsey Graham or Rubio waxes eloquently about freedom for the Venezuelan people Trump standing right next to him brings the conversation back to the only thing that matters to him which is the OIL.
If Trump can get a "deal" on nukes with no regime change he will be happy and have bragging rights for his Nobel aspirations. The deal he cuts will be more or less the same outline as the agreement Obama made but baptized with his name it will something like no one has ever seen before. Just as he will be just as pleased to give Putin half of Ukraine and walk away declaring victory.
It is not for nothing that America is called the "Great Satan" and at this time even considering pretending that Trump is a normal President running some sort of normal foreign or military policy is bonkers. Someday a war with Iran MIGHT be necessary but letting the "great Satan" himself run that war is a disaster.
The West’s consistent failures in foreign policy, from the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, to the inability to deal with a crumbling 3rd-world dictatorship, like Russia, or Iran, Israel failing to crush Hamas, etc, all suggests deep structural problems in foreign policy expertise that long predates Trump.
Yet discussion now focuses on the disruptions caused by the Trump administration, finding new reasons to evade facing the fundamental problems.
More broadly, I think this is a symptom of the wider failure of expertise in politics in general. This failure has led to us losing every single war, and the rise of authoritarianism on our own shores.
It also means, we have no real plan to address any of these serious issues, the consequence of which is the unopposed rise of characters like Trump.
Iranians are so united behind their king (Reza Pahlavi) that the next government has already been formed. Once the thugs are removed from a fee streets in Tehran, he will be back and the country will go back to normal with no power vacuum even for one day. I am an Iranian so I know.
boots on the ground or it will all come to nothing.
it will all come to nothing anyway when you think about it. Trump is playing the game of risk. his advisor in the administration probably actually played that board game and thought they understood how war works. That’s just a thought. In reality there is no one advising him that note about the history of the Middle East if they did, this would never have happened. War is woven into their being.