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Great piece with super contextualisation for a non-specialist.

'Beware the midlevel elites' seems good general advice if you are an authoritarian... but your power is tied in with these self-same elites.

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Russia is a federation on paper but without federalism in practice. It is one of the most centralised nations. Also a corrupted system that was suposed to change during Medvedev's presidential period during late 2000s when "modernisation" (of the state ,not society) was to take place. There is now a risk for civil war in Russia. However, the question is if a Maidan style revolution can take place in Moscow, since many anti-regime Russians are often supporting those who are even more extreme than Putin. Take Navalnij as example, who ten years ago proudly presented himself as a supporter of far-right parties in Europe, so the guy is not some secular liberal democrat

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