Great article. I think part of the problem is that politics has stopped being the place we go to express what we want, but the place we go to vilify the things we hate. Trump gained so much traction with conservatives in the first place because he was hated by the right people. Supporting Trump became a way to stick it to the liberal establishment. Likewise, the main thing keeping a lot of voters loyal to the Democratic party is not wanting to be associated with MAGA voters. It's a terrible way to make decisions and it won't end well.
It also mirrors a larger problem in politics where we selectively blame our inability to fix things on whatever group we find politically convenient. Conservatives blame everything on progressives, immigrants and brown people. Progressives blame everything on conservatives and "the rich." When in fact, every bad outcome we're seeing now can be linked to clear collective decisions we've made. Housing isn't expensive because Blackrock bought all the houses. Housing is expensive because we've collectively decided to make building new housing difficult and expensive. Look at education, healthcare, poor infrastructure, all of these failures represent the consequences of our collective choices, but we keep finding ways of reflecting.
I'm much more convinced of this with respect to Trump than Biden. Lots of Democrats are happy enough with Biden's performance, but worried about his age and electability. They would have preferred that he step aside after one term. But given that he didn't, and the advantages of incumbency, few people wanted a primary challenge in which Biden would prevail but suffer damage along the way.
By contrast, Republican primary voters had plenty of options and went for Trump by an overwhelming margin.
The approve/disapprove polls are pretty much useless in predicting how voters will decide in November. This is especially true because BOTH candidates have high disapproval ratings and low approval ratings. I don't think either one being slightly less disapproved or slightly more approved will necessarily translate into votes.
When real life voters get into the box they will be making the proverbial choice between the lesser of two evils except more so than ever. In the end I am believing that more voters will support an old unindicted geezer who has a clue even if he's wheeling about in a wheel chair than a clueless, criminally corrupt and venal narcissistic clown whose only purpose in getting to the White House is to keep his own ass out of prison and keep all the money he can grift in his bank account.
Nobody may like either candidate but perhaps enough people love our country enough to do the right thing.
Off subject here but the polling question I hate MOST is "Do you think the country is headed in the right/wrong direction?" Even more than the approve/disapprove question there are so many different reasons for the answer none of which taken together can make sense. People on the left, center and right will have entirely different reasons for saying the wrong direction.
This column is incorrect in its assumptions and conclusions. With a binary choice, with a polarized electorate, each candidate will always poll at at least 40% so long as they are basically still alive. The problem is far more comprehensive than just the EC; the lack of political options occurs at all levels (that is parties!). This is what explains the low approval rates for Congress, State legislatures and the executives, yet most incumbent continue to get elected. Craig assumes that when people are disillusioned with the top candidates that they ought to vote for other primary candidates, but this is naive in the extreme, the interest of the Party is not Democracy but winning elections! The usual situation outside the US is close to the RFK Jr candidacy. A fails to garner enough primary support moves on to run as an independent, and they sometimes win. This is actually how new movements and parties are created. What you have in the US is there are interest groups that sort themselves in a partisan and regional ways in order to win elections. It is a representative system, but not a democratic one.
Whitmer or Newsom may or may not fare better than Biden in the general, but I am 100% convinced Trump will get more votes for the Republican ticket than any other primary candidates in November. The reason: Trump owns the party and will actively sabotage a republican candidate that’s not him or someone in his family.
I think most people who say "nobody wanted this" are actually referring to the campaign itself rather than the choices. Everyone is exhausted with 24/7 campaign coverage. Many people don't care about what Trump or Biden said today, or what the talking TV heads say about it, they just wish they could get the whole thing over with and didn't have to wait until November.
I think if we are a bit more careful we should say: yes, it's true that it's the rematch almost no one wants but they don't want anything else either.
As you point out, it is true that probably a large majority of voters would prefer some third individual to both the current canidates. It's just that there isn't some one individual that is true of.
So the rematch no one wants is kinda technically true but misleading due to the paradoxes of preference amalgamation.
Trump's support -- however substantial -- is limited, but among many of his supporters -- in terms of personal loyalty or enthusiasm -- it runs deep. Biden's support is broader, but (also in terms of personal loyalty or enthusiasm) it's incredibly shallow: What runs deep among Biden's supporters is their hatred of Trump.
I'm no Trumpster -- but meanwhile, here in Oakland, Chinese grandmas keep getting mugged, drivers get carjacked (or "bipped" while sitting in their cars, stopped for a light), and families (regardless of "color") feel unsafe. People travel thousands of miles (bypassing even Mexico City) to crowd the US border, and we're told that they're merely fleeing their countries of origin, seeking "asylum." Voters in multi-ethnic California keep repudiating "affirmative action"....
Then we're told that what we truly need to fear is "white supremacy" or "cisheteropatriarchy" -- and we're insulted by names like "AAPI" or "Latinx." (As a gay male, for that matter, I'm insulted by the term "queer.") So who's touting "grievance" and "hate," and who's banking on resentment and fear?
"And when they come for you..."? Looks like a protection racket to me.
THAT's the context in which independent voters -- especially in the "swing" states -- have assumed such importance this time around. And it's why this is a rematch that nobody wants.
If ANYBODY thinks Biden is doing anything other than being used as a puppet they have no idea what they're talking about.
The man can't even walk a straight line. He can't form proper sentences. His cadence when speaking shows he's cognitively impaired.
The United States is quite literally the laughing stock of the entire planet for trying to make people believe that this guy has some form of power. He's a worn out grandpa and this would be considered elder abuse in any other circle.
Great article. I think part of the problem is that politics has stopped being the place we go to express what we want, but the place we go to vilify the things we hate. Trump gained so much traction with conservatives in the first place because he was hated by the right people. Supporting Trump became a way to stick it to the liberal establishment. Likewise, the main thing keeping a lot of voters loyal to the Democratic party is not wanting to be associated with MAGA voters. It's a terrible way to make decisions and it won't end well.
It also mirrors a larger problem in politics where we selectively blame our inability to fix things on whatever group we find politically convenient. Conservatives blame everything on progressives, immigrants and brown people. Progressives blame everything on conservatives and "the rich." When in fact, every bad outcome we're seeing now can be linked to clear collective decisions we've made. Housing isn't expensive because Blackrock bought all the houses. Housing is expensive because we've collectively decided to make building new housing difficult and expensive. Look at education, healthcare, poor infrastructure, all of these failures represent the consequences of our collective choices, but we keep finding ways of reflecting.
I'm delighted to vote Biden/Harris again. No problem here.
I'm much more convinced of this with respect to Trump than Biden. Lots of Democrats are happy enough with Biden's performance, but worried about his age and electability. They would have preferred that he step aside after one term. But given that he didn't, and the advantages of incumbency, few people wanted a primary challenge in which Biden would prevail but suffer damage along the way.
By contrast, Republican primary voters had plenty of options and went for Trump by an overwhelming margin.
The approve/disapprove polls are pretty much useless in predicting how voters will decide in November. This is especially true because BOTH candidates have high disapproval ratings and low approval ratings. I don't think either one being slightly less disapproved or slightly more approved will necessarily translate into votes.
When real life voters get into the box they will be making the proverbial choice between the lesser of two evils except more so than ever. In the end I am believing that more voters will support an old unindicted geezer who has a clue even if he's wheeling about in a wheel chair than a clueless, criminally corrupt and venal narcissistic clown whose only purpose in getting to the White House is to keep his own ass out of prison and keep all the money he can grift in his bank account.
Nobody may like either candidate but perhaps enough people love our country enough to do the right thing.
Off subject here but the polling question I hate MOST is "Do you think the country is headed in the right/wrong direction?" Even more than the approve/disapprove question there are so many different reasons for the answer none of which taken together can make sense. People on the left, center and right will have entirely different reasons for saying the wrong direction.
Thanks, Andy, for this article.
I wish I had written it.
This column is incorrect in its assumptions and conclusions. With a binary choice, with a polarized electorate, each candidate will always poll at at least 40% so long as they are basically still alive. The problem is far more comprehensive than just the EC; the lack of political options occurs at all levels (that is parties!). This is what explains the low approval rates for Congress, State legislatures and the executives, yet most incumbent continue to get elected. Craig assumes that when people are disillusioned with the top candidates that they ought to vote for other primary candidates, but this is naive in the extreme, the interest of the Party is not Democracy but winning elections! The usual situation outside the US is close to the RFK Jr candidacy. A fails to garner enough primary support moves on to run as an independent, and they sometimes win. This is actually how new movements and parties are created. What you have in the US is there are interest groups that sort themselves in a partisan and regional ways in order to win elections. It is a representative system, but not a democratic one.
Whitmer or Newsom may or may not fare better than Biden in the general, but I am 100% convinced Trump will get more votes for the Republican ticket than any other primary candidates in November. The reason: Trump owns the party and will actively sabotage a republican candidate that’s not him or someone in his family.
I think most people who say "nobody wanted this" are actually referring to the campaign itself rather than the choices. Everyone is exhausted with 24/7 campaign coverage. Many people don't care about what Trump or Biden said today, or what the talking TV heads say about it, they just wish they could get the whole thing over with and didn't have to wait until November.
I think if we are a bit more careful we should say: yes, it's true that it's the rematch almost no one wants but they don't want anything else either.
As you point out, it is true that probably a large majority of voters would prefer some third individual to both the current canidates. It's just that there isn't some one individual that is true of.
So the rematch no one wants is kinda technically true but misleading due to the paradoxes of preference amalgamation.
Really? The unpopulist is now platforming and amplifying Trump? When will it end!!!! 🥳
This article distorts the situation.
Trump's support -- however substantial -- is limited, but among many of his supporters -- in terms of personal loyalty or enthusiasm -- it runs deep. Biden's support is broader, but (also in terms of personal loyalty or enthusiasm) it's incredibly shallow: What runs deep among Biden's supporters is their hatred of Trump.
I'm no Trumpster -- but meanwhile, here in Oakland, Chinese grandmas keep getting mugged, drivers get carjacked (or "bipped" while sitting in their cars, stopped for a light), and families (regardless of "color") feel unsafe. People travel thousands of miles (bypassing even Mexico City) to crowd the US border, and we're told that they're merely fleeing their countries of origin, seeking "asylum." Voters in multi-ethnic California keep repudiating "affirmative action"....
Then we're told that what we truly need to fear is "white supremacy" or "cisheteropatriarchy" -- and we're insulted by names like "AAPI" or "Latinx." (As a gay male, for that matter, I'm insulted by the term "queer.") So who's touting "grievance" and "hate," and who's banking on resentment and fear?
"And when they come for you..."? Looks like a protection racket to me.
THAT's the context in which independent voters -- especially in the "swing" states -- have assumed such importance this time around. And it's why this is a rematch that nobody wants.
The Cult of Obama’s Personality begot The Cult of Trump’s Personality begot The Dolt of Biden’s Impersonality
Get ready for Kamala. Veep vs Idiocracy
If ANYBODY thinks Biden is doing anything other than being used as a puppet they have no idea what they're talking about.
The man can't even walk a straight line. He can't form proper sentences. His cadence when speaking shows he's cognitively impaired.
The United States is quite literally the laughing stock of the entire planet for trying to make people believe that this guy has some form of power. He's a worn out grandpa and this would be considered elder abuse in any other circle.
The Emperor Has No Clothes.