In the run-up to the February 2024 general elections in Pakistan, both independent observers and the Pakistani political establishment assumed the outcome was nearly certain. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s party, Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML–N), had the support of Pakistan’s influential military establishment, and was expected to win easily. Despite electoral manipulation by Pakistani authorities, however, PML–N did not secure a clear victory at the ballot box. Unexpectedly, the highest number of seats in the legislature went to independent candidates backed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), despite authorities’ preelection crackdown on the party and its leaders. PML–N came second, while the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)—led by Asif Zardari, the husband of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto—finished third. No party won a simple majority, and the PPP, that came third, ultimately opted to support a coalition government led by PML–N.
February’s surprise election results show the power of a well-organized political opposition and energized electorate in the face of state repression: despite several months of Pakistani authorities’ online and offline efforts to undermine PTI, many Pakistanis defied the powerful security establishment by voting for PTI–backed candidates. The victory of PTI–affiliated candidates stunned observers and represented a historic upset in a country where political success has long been tied to the support of the military establishment. Though flawed, this election demonstrates a change in the electoral landscape and indicates that reshaping electoral dynamics in Pakistan, which is rated Partly Free in Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2023 report, is possible.
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Three key elements—the authorities’ increased repression of critical voices, parties’ use of technology to reach and influence voters, and voters’ rejection of the military’s preferred electoral outcome—made this election cycle unique.
Suspending Mobile Phone Services To Control Election Results
Pakistani officials have long undermined human rights online, including by using internet restrictions to curb free expression, but digital controls tightened even further around the February vote. On election day, mobile phone services and access to social media platforms were suspended nationwide. While Pakistani authorities have previously cut access to mobile phone services during major protests, festivals, and even for brief periods during local elections affected by religious tensions, February marked the first time that the government has suspended these services on the day of nationwide general elections. The Ministry of Interior justified these measures with vague assurances, claiming the suspension of services was essential for maintaining law and order and addressing potential threats.
The suspension of mobile phone services on election day impedes the ability of independent actors supporting the electoral process to ensure a free and fair election. For instance, independent election observers rely on mobile communications to connect with each other as they move between polling stations. In February, the authorities’ disruption of mobile phone services hindered the transmission of election results as polls closed. Moreover, the Election Commission of Pakistan's own short-message service (SMS) became inaccessible, and voters could not access critical election-related information.
Using AI To Circumvent Speech Bans
In recent years, Pakistan’s media regulation authority has imposed bans on airing Khan's speeches, preventing them from being broadcast via mainstream media outlets. As a result, PTI members turned to online communication, using social media platforms to reach their supporters, in one case hosting an online livestream rally on TikTok and X. While Khan remained in jail, PTI used artificial intelligence to generate a short clip of Khan’s “voice” urging his supporters to vote in the upcoming elections. Following the elections, PTI produced another AI–generated video featuring Khan delivering a “victory speech." The party asserted that the content of both AI–generated videos had been approved by Khan himself.
PTI's use of AI has been cited in the media as an example of how a political party equipped with a strong digital organizing infrastructure can leverage technology to counter state suppression and reach voter audiences. However, it also demonstrates the ease with which generative AI can create hyperrealistic imagery and audio, blurring the line between what is real and what is not. As explored in Freedom House’s Freedom on the Net 2023 report, the use of generative AI can have serious consequences: the technology can be deployed to create false and misleading information at scale, damaging the reliability and diversity of the digital environment.
Election Engineering and Delayed Results
Shortly after poll numbers began coming in, authorities suspended the release of results for several hours as it became apparent that support for independent candidates was higher than anticipated. Surprisingly, it was not a party aligned with the military establishment making electoral inroads, but rather a candidate backed by the voters themselves. Following the rebroadcasting of the votes, Imran Khan’s PTI’s lead reversed as expected. Several days post-election, the major political parties found themselves in a position where coalition building had become imperative to secure a majority. However, the unexpectedly robust performance of Khan's PTI was particularly startling for Sharif, who had been identified as the preferred candidate of the influential security establishment, and served to highlight the power of Pakistani voters.
The People of Pakistan Showed Democracy Matters
Ultimately, although the country’s politics returned to "business as usual" following the polls, the results of the February election showed that electoral change is possible. In the run-up to the election and then at the polls, the people of Pakistan made their voices heard and witnessed the potency of their vote. The momentum of the voters was unprecedented, and the ability of the electorate to overcome institutional barriers was remarkable. February’s election illustrated that a mobilized electorate can successfully challenge the status quo, even when up against a powerful establishment.
Going forward, the lessons of Pakistan’s February elections offer hope as well as a template for energizing the electorate and promoting democratic electoral change in the country.
This article first appeared in Freedom House.
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